oisington Investment Management has been conducting research into estimating the risk premium of stocks over long term Treasury rates.  The results of this research were published in The Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 2003  vol. 29, #2*).  The study observes that most research has overstated the advantages of stocks over bonds.  Over long periods, bonds have actually outperformed stocks. It goes on to explore the conditions that are found to have likely produced these results.  

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Recent speech given by Lacy Hunt, Ph.D.